Weekly review 10/11/2010

Greetings everyone,

We will start our review with a market overview. 

Last week, we saw a slight downward trend in the majority of markets but, this week, we’ve seen a slight upward trend within this market which is quite SPECIAL, as we have commented over the last few weeks.  Here is current data to support our claim:

• The least number of Open Interest in the Ibex in the last few years.
• The lowest monthly volume for September since 1999.
• The largest gain in September for the SP since 1939
• Volumes way below the monthly averages of the last several months which were very poor in all markets.
• The Fed purchasing in the market this past Tuesday and Wednesday.
• The HFS in the US literally destroying values with movements more typical of OTC.

With these indicators in mind, take a look at the following chart of the last 20 sessions for the Dax to see how the market is now.

• Lacking tendency
• Strong intraday movements

FUTURES & STOCKS: Dax

Now we will review the Dax technique which we trade via our Trading Room at 2am EST (8am GMT +1).  For the year, we have made 23 positive trades versus 5 negative ones for a success rate of 82.15%.  The last 11 operations have been positive for a gain of 231 points (5,775 € per contract).

This past week, our technique indicated only one trade from which we gained 125 Euros per contract.  It was a shame we didn’t trade on Thursday and Friday as well, even though the gap were small, as our technique would have worked.

 LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again. 

We hope the market begins to move a bit more with expirations in October and US business financial reports.

FOREX

These were our operations this past week:

We had 3 positive operations versus 4 negative ones for a loss of -28 Pips. There isn’t much new about the market.  We continue with intra day movements which are quite flat.  Now we’ll summarize what was most interesting for the week. 

Weekly review 10/04/2010

Greetings everyone,

The following is our review of the past week.

FUTURES & STOCKS: Dax

Last Thursday, our trading for September came to a close.  For the month, we made only 10 Dax futures trades and all 10 were positive for a gain of 134.5 Dax puntos or 3,362.50 € per contract.  In August, a month we normally don’t operate a lot, we executed 17 operations.

Our results for Dax trading in this third quarter of 2010 were 22 positive operations versus 5 negative ones for a gain of 231 points which is the equivalent of 5,775 € per contract.

Here are all our operations:

MiniSP

For the MiniSP futures, the good news is that we closed the quarter with 79 positive operations versus 6 negative ones for a gain of 139.25 points or $6,962.50.  The bad news is that we haven’t traded since August 27th.  

As we have mentioned in other review, it’s not as if we don’t want to operate.  We don’t trade because the market conditions don’t allow us to do so. Take a look at the last several sessions.  There was only movement when macroeconomic reports were made and then the market would return to being flat and the Sp returned over and over again to the 1140 level.

They way the market is right now, we believe trading the Sp would be like throwing away our money.  Therefore, until the market changes, we won’t operate. 

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again. 

FOREX

This past week, we only executed the following two operations. 

 As we have commented, over the last several sessions, our pairs are at levels which make it difficult to operate our techniques.  The range is very narrow which doesn’t permit us to place our usual targets. Take a look at our trade of the Eur/Jpy from the 27th.  We hit the stop by only 5 pips, the price then remained static for almost 24 hours in a +25/-25 range and, 24 hours later, the pair would have hit our target of +50.

As we have stated before, we can’t force ourselves to continue taking risks while this sort of this continues to occur.  The advantage our techniques is that one doesn’t have to spend the day in front of their monitor.  But, while the markets lack strength and, especially, tendency during the opening of the European and US markets, we won’t be able to find good opportunities for this trading style.

As we mentioned last week, we are currently executing a technique which is similar to our FX techniques but applied to the DAX futures and with resounding success. This technique is simple to follow as you only have to enter the Trading Room 5 minutes before the European opening at 1:55am EST and, if there is a gap, we will trade either long or short and you will see our entry price, target and stop which normally don’t change throughout the rest of the session.  We are trying to replicate these trades for FOREX, the only problem being that, as you might expect, there are not gaps every day.  The up-side is that the success rate when there is a gap is very, very good (this month, we were 10 for 10 in Dax trade for a profit of +3,362.5 euros per contract). Therefore, if Forex traders are not comfortable trading futures, we will try to replicate this technique for FOREX as all markets are more or less correlated, depending on the cycle. Before we launch this new technique, we will advise you by email with the trade’s characteristics.

Have a great weekend!

Weekly review 9/26/2010

Greetings everyone,

We are going to start by reviewing the Dax futures technique that we trade at 2am EST.  As you can below, we have made 21 positive trades versus 5 negative ones with an 80.76% success rate and with 9 straight positive operations.

 This week, our technique gave us a signal each and every day, which had not happened in quite some time, and we gained 59.5 points or 1,487.50€ per contract.  Our results could have been much better it we hadn’t been within only 0.5 points of the 30 point target on Friday only to later hit the stop profit for a 5 point gain.  Had we hit the target for that trade, we would have gained 84.5 points or 2,112.50 € per contract for the week.

 As we mentioned previously, on Friday Dax technique gave us a short trade at the opening at 6182 with a target at 6152 and, as we can see below, the price made it to 6152.5, 0.5 points from the target and then rebounded to the stop profit we had placed for +5 points. It was a shame but these things happen

 As you can see, maybe we shouldn’t have adjusted the target so much but the price came right up to it.

 

 In the following chart, you can see how the technique would have fared since March, 2009.  We would be close to 4 thousand points per contract which would be incredible.

 MiniSP

So, you ask, how the week was for the Sp?  We had the same story as always: noise, noise and more noise.  

They way the market is right now, we believe trading the Sp would be like throwing away our money.  Therefore, until the market changes, we won’t operate. 

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again. 

 FOREX

These were our operations for this past week:

We had 2 positive operations versus 4 negative ones for a loss of -57 pips. This was a modest loss given the number of problems we are running into. 

Have a great weekend!

180.5 points or 4,512.5 in the Dax future

Good morning,

This morning we gained another points in Dax futures which means that, in the past two months, we have made 1780.5 points, or 4,512.50€ , with 19 positive and 5 negative trades.

Keep in mind that we are trading in a difficult market that is both quite stagnant and with low volumes.  This forces us to trade slowly and cut short targets on many occasions.  What is important is to keep making gains; in this case,  4,512.50€ in two months! 

176.5 points or 4,412.5 in the Dax future

Good morning,

This morning we gained another points in Dax futures which means that, in the past two months, we have made 176.5 points, or 4,412.50€ (approx. $5,736), with 18 positive and 5 negative trades.

Keep in mind that we are trading in a difficult market that is both quite stagnant and with low volumes.  This forces us to trade slowly and cut short targets on many occasions.  What is important is to keep making gains; in this case,  4,412.50€ in two months! 

Weekly review 9/19/2010

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review this week with futures and stocks and specifically with the Dax Futures

FUTURES & STOCKS

Dax

Here is how the Dax technique has fared for us.  This week, we executed two operations and made 13 points.  To date, we have gained 160.5 points or 4,012.50 euros ($5,216.25) per Dax contract.

 MiniSP

And so what happened with the Sp this past week?  Take a look at the following chart from Monday to Thursday. There was a strong upward gap on Sunday night and then movement without any tendency making it impossible to trade.

 The problem is that on Friday, except for an initial movement lasting 15 minutes between 1127 and 1118 it was more of the same: A lateral with a range of only 4 points for 16 hours until the close.

 Therefore, we can’t even touch the Sp at the moment and, as you may remember, the previous two weeks were identical.

 With regards to the MiniSP, here are our numbers for the past 6 weeks.  We executed 81 positive operations against only 4 negative ones for a total profit of 142.75 points ($7,137.50 per Sp contract).

If you take under consideration that we have made these gains in August, when volumes are low, we consider these to be very good results but the problem we have now is that since Thursday, August 26th, the market has completely stopped and we only saw volatility when macroeconomic reports were announced.  This is why we have not made any trades for the MiniSp future for the past 16 sessions.  We hope that starting on Monday, we will begin to trade normally once again.

Week	Positive	Negative	SP Points
July 26-30	10	1	19
August 2-6	18	1	27.5
August 9-13	13	0	15.75
August 16-20	26	1	47.5
August 23-27	14	1	33
TOTAL	81	4	142.75

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again. 

FOREX

These were our operations for this past week:

We had 2 positive operations versus 3 negatives for a loss of -45 pips.

Weekly review 9/12/2010

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review this week with futures and stocks.

FUTURES & STOCKS

To start, we want to share the following data with you:

-          Ftsee volume is 43% below the 10 session average.

-          Dax volume is 39% below the 10 session average.

-          Cac France volume is 51% below the 10 session average.

-          Nyse volume is 34% below the 3 month average.

-          Nasdaq volume is 17% below the 3 month average.

This past week was identical to the previous one.  We expected more volume and movement after the US holiday this past Monday but there was none possible due to the change in contracts from September to December for the SP.  Except for the movements you can observe in the below chart which are due to macroeconomic reports, we have only seen long laterals for the Sp that do not allow us to operate as they signify movements of 1 to 3 minutes of a couple points only to later go lateral for half an hour.  These market conditions made it impossible to be productive and, therefore, we didn’t trade the Sp this past week.

 If you remember, the previous week was identical:  The previous Tuesday the Sp went from 1040 to 1104 at the close on Friday.  But take a look at how it rose, due to 4 macroeconomic reports: Tuesday from 1040 to 1052; Wednesday from 1060 to 1080; Thursday from 1080 to 1085 and Friday from 1088 to 1100.  As you can see, they were really difficult sessions to operate in as there was practically no movement during the session except that related to the macroeconomic reports.

 Dax

And what happened with the Dax? The same as the Sp:  We traded only once, on Friday, in 5 sessions, as it was the only one with an opening gap.

We analyzed last year’s data from these dates and, last September, we would have been able to trade everyday except for 6 sessions but it was the month with the least number of signals, until this year.  Take a look at Friday’s session: There was an upward gap at the opening, then it was covered, then a long lateral during which it was impossible to do anything and we hit the 3 point stop.  This was the only Dax operation this past week:  +3 points and 75 € made per contract. 

To summarize our Dax performance to date, we have a profit of 147.5 points since we started and this week we executed one trade for a gain of 3 points. In 8 weeks, we have made an excellent gain of 3,696.50€ per contract.  

MiniSP

With regards to the MiniSP, here are our numbers for the past 6 weeks.  We executed 81 positive operations against only 4 negative ones for a total profit of 142.75 points ($7,137.50 per Sp contract).

If you take under consideration that we have made these gains in August, when volumes are low, we consider these to be very good results but the problem we have now is that since Thursday, August 26th, the market has completely stopped and we only saw volatility when macroeconomic reports were announced.  This is why we have not made any trades for the MiniSp future for the past 11 sessions.  We hope that starting on Monday, we will begin to trade normally once again.

Week	Positive	Negative	SP Points
July 26-30	10	1	19
August 2-6	18	1	27.5
August 9-13	13	0	15.75
August 16-20	26	1	47.5
August 23-27	14	1	33
TOTAL	81	4	142.75

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again. 

FOREX

These were our operations for this past week:

What a week!  The numbers were not bad: 5 positive operations versus 1 negative one for a total gain of +27 Pips.  But, it could have been even better as there were at least 2 operations that missed their targets of 50 pips by only a couple of pips, then hitting the stops profit of +10 only to later reach their original target.

 It is very complicated to find market movements which are clean and with a tendency of at least 50 pips.  In addition, for Wednesday’s USA morning operation, we had to apply a stop profit as an exception as we were 20 pips from the target which, in the end, saved us from ending up with a loss. This is not the norm but we continue to make gains and to protect our capital which is what counts.

Have a great weekend!