Last Wave Technique. Q2 2010. Our numbers +36.16%

Weekly review 6/27/2010

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review with Forex trading.

FOREX

Trades this past week:

This week, we operated a bit less than we normally do, mostly due the lack of tendency for forex which started about two days before the FED announce new interest rates on Wednesday, June 23^rd.  In addition, this past week something happened with a trade which was similar to an occurrence of the previous week.  We traded short for Eur/Jpy for the European Morning on Friday, the 25th and, after being up 25 Pips, the pair bounced up 64 Pips, just to our STOP.  We hit the stop by 3-4 Pips – which is ridiculous as that is the amount of the spread – only to later fall almost to our target or stop profit. Therefore, instead of making a gain of 50 or 10 Pips at the stop profit, we ended up losing 40 for the European Morning technique.

 In the end, we finished the week with a gain, which is what is really important after all.  Never-the-less, if the market improves a bit and we have a little more luck, we are sure we will achieve much better returns.  Remember that we have one trade open from Friday afternoon, long for EUR/JPY at 110.42. Target 111.22. Stop 109.77. This weekend, the G20 meets; therefore we may have a GAP when the market opens on Sunday.

FX 2010 Summary

EUR		US
GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	CAD/JPY	OTHERS	DISCRETIONAL
-60	346	-207	341	151	60	50

FUTURES & STOCKS

Now we will review futures and stocks.  This past week we traded infrequently for the Sp, gaining 4 points ($200 per contract).  We would have traded more but, from our experience, the weeks before a Fed announcement are normally complicated as the market “normally” stop before a Fed intervention and, once the announcement has been made, we normally see odd activity like the following.

As of now, for the current quarter, for the MiniSP we have a gain of $925 per contract with 25 positive trades versus 12 negative ones.  Our Achilles’ heal has been the Evening Technique which has registered a loss of -9.75 points thus far this quarter, subtracting $487.50 from our other gains.

 As you can see, this quarter we are being very cautious.  For the Emini, we normally execute about 100 operations and we have only executed 37 operations so far this quarter.  We are still making profits but we are trading with composure, which is important.

Now let’s review the Last Wave trade.  The problem with this technique is that, right now, the stocks that are trending one day then stop completely over the following days and their original trend does not continue.  And stocks that have big falls one day recover the next day while those with tremendous gains one day, fall the next as we can see for the majority of stocks during the last several weeks.  This makes it impossible for us to string together series of interesting trades as we did in past years.

We developed the technique in 2005 for our Spanish-speaking service although our results are only summed up on our web page since 2006 as we applied this technique with a variation in 2005 and we have not computed strictly Last Wave results from that year in our statistics.

 As you can see, from 2006 until 2008, the technique gave us extraordinary results, buoyed by the volume and powerful tendency in the market at that time.  Last year, we executed the technique a bit and this year we are making gains, little by little, but many stocks can only be traded for one day and others have difficulty following a trend which is exactly the opposite of what happened in prior years when the majority of stocks in the same session would make the target.

Have a great weekend.

Weekly review 6/20/2010

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review with Forex trading.

FOREX

Trades this past week:

Results by technique:

EU	US
35	-47
-63	-47
30	65
80	-53
60	60
1
143	-22

We’ll take this opportunity to remind you we have two trades that remain open, as you can see in the list of trades above.  They are both shorts: one for the GBP/USD at -10/15 pips and the other for the EUR/JPY with +15/20 Pips when the market closed.  This week, we have continued to improve our results with respect to the European Morning trade of the Pound. Almost one month ago, we reached our DD and we advised that there was a high probability we would rebound and start to make gains, given the stagnancy we had been experiencing for months, and that is just what happened.  Now, we are closing in on our high for the year, which we hope to break, and we expect the European Morning technique for the Pound will begin to really give us positive results.

European Morning Gbp/Usd Drawdown

 After our long trade was fulfilled and we made it within 5 Pips of the target, where we would have made 65 Pips, strangely, the price dove to our stop, which was triggered by only 5 Pips, for a loss of -53, and later the price went up to hit what was our target. Because of that trade, we ended the week down -22 Pips for the USA Morning instead of up +96 Pips. Of course, we can’t complain about the week because, as those who have been following FX for several months know, this year we have experienced trade losses by only 1 Pip. But, as you know, our philosophy is to NOT modify our entry prices, targets or stops once we send them.  This philosophy allows our subscribers to not have to be checking their email all day.

On Friday, we expected a lot of movement after futures and options had expired for the European markets but, surprisingly, that is not what we found.

Friday’s Eur/Jpy session (times GMT +1).

It was one of the most stagnant sessions – a range of only 30/50 pips – for a day with expirations in the last 3 years. Therefore, we continue with our shorts waiting to find out what will happen when the market opens Sunday.

FX 2010 Summary

EUR		US
GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	CAD/JPY	OTHERS	DISCRETIONAL
-52	326	-207	303	151	60	50

FUTURES & STOCKS

Now we will review futures and stocks.  This week, we gained 6.25 points for the Sp, the equivalent of $312.50 per contract, with the following trades:

 It was not an easy week to trade the SP as we will see when we review all of our possible trades.

 For the current quarter for the MiniSP, we have gained $725 per contract with 24 positive operations versus 12 negatives ones.  We have achieved this overall gain in spite of poor results for Evening technique which has registered a loss of -9.75 points, or $487.50.

Have a great weekend.

Weekly Review 06/12/2010

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our tWrades over the last week and we will start our weekly review with Forex trading.

FOREX

Trades this past week:

Results by technique:

European	US	Discretional
43	64	-40
50	-62
-40	-62
2	-47
40	60
36	55
-40
91	8	-40

This past week, the behavior of the pound improved a lot, the European morning technique again began to show profits and we have left our minimum level behind.  Over the last weeks, we have been commenting how we found ourselves with flat results, where our techniques have, for some time, been bouncing between maximums and minimums. If you remember, we sent out a chart two weeks ago and we commented that we should stop trading our technique, even though we were near our maximum Drawdown, because we had not broken any negative historical mark and we saw from the behavior of the pair that a rebound was to be expected and we would once again obtain profits.

And, that is precisely what happened.  This is the evolution of our trades since then. 

And this last week:

EU
GBP/USD	43	50	2	40	36	171

As you can see, we continue to be flat.  Now we have left minimums behind and, most likely we will go towards maximums and try to break them so that the pair again achieves a monthly average of between 400 and 1.000 Pips, as it had until the beginning of this year.

For the other pairs, there was no important news.  We made a discretional trade for the CAD/JPY because of its good risk/reward ratio - 40 Stop / 90 Target – and high success rate based on extreme differences.  The USA morning Eur/Jpy and the Cad also didn’t present any important change.  They each are accumulating slow gains within these lethargic conditions that we hope are about to change.

FX 2010 Summary

EUR		US
GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	CAD/JPY	OTHERS	DISCRETIONAL
-54	185	-207	385	91	60	50

FUTURES & STOCKS

Now we will review futures and stocks.  This week, we gained 3.25 points in the Sp, the equivalent of $162.50 per contract, but we are not content with this as the Sp has been really difficult to operate and we must not force operations and only make trades which are obvious.

 Now let’s review our Last Wave technique. Two weeks ago, when we were still in the testing phase, here were our numbers:

Aone +4.74

Sgy +4

Ire +15.42%

Jns +4.21%

Usu +4%

Csr +1.23%

Ttmi +1.41%

Total gain of +35.01% for 7 trades.

Last week, we started trading for real and we had these results:

DAY	STOCK	TYPE	ENTRY PRICE	SALE PRICE	B/P	TYPE
06/01/2010	MMR	SHORT	9,73	10,02	-3,00%	21
06/01/2010	IVN	SHORT	13,52	13,93	-3,00%	21
06/02/2010	USU	LONG	5,63	5,79	2,84%	21

And this week, we only made three trades of which Tso remains open with a 1% gain.

06/08/2010	PIR	SHORT	7,09	6,81	4,00%	21
06/09/2010	DHI	SHORT	10,64	10,96	-3,00%	21

As you can see, these results are not similar to those we had two weeks before.  The problem we experienced for losing trades has always happened on the day after making the trade.

As usual, we hope you have a great weekend.