Last Wave Stocks. This week +5.36%, this year +45.60%

Now let’s review the Last Wave technique.  This week, we made four trades for a profit of over 5%.

As we saw with the Sp, it was a difficult week with continual tendency changes.  Even so, we did well.  Although we have not traded the Last Wave technique many times yet this year, it is going very well with 21 positive trades and only 7 negatives for a gain of 45.60% and a total gain for the technique of 614.43% since 2006.

Weekly review 7/18/2010

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review with Forex trading.

First of all, we would like to let you know that we regret the poor results for Forex this last week.  It happens to have been our worst week for our Forex techniques in recent memory.  Up 200 pips and after several weeks executing few trades due to the macro economic reports made at the beginning of the month, we have had a very bad streak, especially on the 12^th and 14^th of July for the Eur/Jpy. And as if that wasn’t enough, we experienced some bad luck having started to trade the Gbp/Usd for the USA Morning Technique at the worst possible moment. Having observed the good results that the technique was providing for the last several weeks, 8 positive trades in the month for a gain of over 400 pips, we decide to start trading it once again and the first two operations were losses, the only losses for this technique for the month. 

As you know, this year we have had a lot of very bad luck. Besides the facto f trading well or badly, what is clear is that a long streak of bad luck can badly hurt anyone. Starting at the beginning of the year, in January and February, we missed the opportunity to make 500 Pips.  Our signals always indicate the exact Target and Stop prices and we have tried to not vary from those so that our subscribers don’t have to be checking their email constantly.  Unfortunately, on multiple occasions we missed our targets by only 2 pips but hit stops by 1 or 2 Pips. Because of this, we did not start the year as we expected.  This week, we had a trade that came within 15 pips of the target (+60) only to go to the stop for a loss (-38).

Fortunately, it appears these types of situations are in the past as they have become more and more infrequent over the last months. Where we really started out on the wrong foot was with the USA Morning Gbp/Usd, as we commented.  We had been following for some time and we were waiting for the macro economic reports as well as for the market to experience more moderate volatility so we could start trading it once again.  Here are the numbers for July, up until now, if we had executed the trade every day.

Gbp/Usd  USA Morning Technique

01-jul	SHORT	1,5070	1,5170	100
02-jul	LONG	1,5169	1,5101	68
05-jul	LONG	1,5123	1,5093	30
06-jul	LONG	1,5191	1,5156	-31
07-jul	LONG	1,5152	1,5218	66
08-jul	SHORT	1,5139	1,5171	40
09-jul	SHORT	1,5078	1,4978	100
12-jul	SHORT	1,5031	1,5060	-29
13-jul	LONG	1,5042	1,5198	56
14-jul	SHORT	1,5217	1,5255	-38
15-jul	LONG	1.5375	1.5415	40
16-jul	SHORT	1.5366	1.5431	45
				447

As you can see, we would have had only 3 negative trades out of 12 for a total gain of +447 Pips for the month to date.  Unfortunately, the first day we sent a signal for this pair was Monday, July 12^th, for a loss of -29 Pips.  The second signal, the second of only 2 negative trades for the month, was sent and executed on Wednesday, July 14th, for a loss of -38 Pips.  The following days, we decided to stop trading the pair due to market volatility and, as you can see, all except one of the trades would have been a gain.  This is why we mentioned our bad fortune:  this week we had a slightly negative outcome for the EurJpy which coincided with two negative trades for the USA Morning Pound which has accounted for an accumulation of losses.

Regrettably, this coincidence of factors has caused us to lose 300 pips instead of gaining more than 400. We can only continue to work and we expect that these types of events don’t repeat themselves as they are not due to the fact the techniques aren’t working but rather due to having lost winning operations for various reasons and because of short term circumstances (excess volatility, marco economic reports..) during which our studies indicate we should not operate.  Then, we started our normal trading with a bad streak, incurring our current Drawdown.

Soon, we are going to offer you some new trading methods but we will continue to test them during a prudent period first.

FX 2010 Summary

EUR		US
GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	CAD/JPY	OTHERS	DISCRETIONAL
-83	526	-274	302	151	60	50

FUTURES & STOCKS

Now we will review futures and stocks. With regard to the Sp, this week we made few trades for a loss of 3.75 points.  We made such few trades because due to the options expiration on Friday the market experienced very sudden movements.

As always, let’s see what would have happened had we traded normally every day.  As you can see below, we would have gained 4 points for the week.

DAY	TECHNIQUE	OUTCOME Normal
Monday	Morning	-4
	Opening	5
	Evening	0
Tuesday	Morning	0
	Opening	4
	Evening	0
Wednesday	Morning	4
	Opening	0
	Evening	3
Thursday	Morning	-4
	Opening	0
	Evening	-4
Friday	Morning	0
	Opening	0
	Evening	0
		4

We are working hard to provide you with other techniques for the Sp but the one which has the most promise is not compatible with sending an email as it requires being connected to our subscribers via chat.  Therefore, we are going to see how we can deliver this technique.  We need to trade the technique ourselves for several sessions more to finish refining the technique.  We hope to have it ready for our subscribers at the end of August.

Now let’s review the Last Wave technique.  This week, we made four trades for a profit of over 5%.

As we saw with the Sp, it was a difficult week with continual tendency changes.  Even so, we did well.  Although we have not traded the Last Wave technique many times yet this year, it is going very well with 21 positive trades and only 7 negatives for a gain of 45.60% and a total gain for the technique of 614.43% since 2006.

Weekly review 7/11/2010

Greetings everyone,

As we do every week, we are going to review our trades over the last week and we will start our review with Forex trading.

FOREX

Trades this past week:

We again closed this week with a profit.  This time, we didn’t make 297 pips as we did last week but we did make +58 Pips. We traded less than usual, only 3 trades for the European Morning Technique, none for the Pound, but we made gains, little by little and by being conservative. A good example of why we didn’t trade the Gbp/Usd for the European Morning Technique can be found if we analyze Thursday, July 8^th, when hours before announcing interest rates in the UK, the following happened.

We saw ranges in one minute of more than 20 Pips, both up and down.  Therefore, it is impossible to trade with stops of 30 Pips both because of amplitude and lack of tendency. On Monday, July 5th, banks and markets in the US were closed for a national holiday and, therefore, we could not trade, following our norms for the USA Morning Technique. Given the fact that we traded less than we usually do, the numbers for the week were good.

With reference to the lack of tendency for the British Pound, here are two graphs with data over 10 days where we can see the progression of the principal world stock index - Sp500 – together with other pairs. The Pound is not normally characterized by a correlation to other markets but, without a doubt, what happened over the last week is abnormal and we expect more profitable activity in the near future.

Gbp/Usd - Sp500

Eur/Jpy - Sp500

FX 2010 Summary

EUR		US
GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/USD	EUR/JPY	CAD/JPY	OTHERS	DISCRETIONAL
-32	556	-207	458	151	60	50

FUTURES & STOCKS

Now we will review futures and stocks.

This past week, we traded the Sp very little for a loss of 8 points ($400 per contract).  We should have traded much more and have executed all our trades as this last week our normal techniques would have performed well giving us 19 points per contract, even though Monday was a holiday.  Nine of those points would come from one single trade from Wednesday evening that we didn’t execute because over the last months that technique has not been working well at all.

DAY	TECHNIQUE	OUTCOME Normal
Monday	Morning	0
	Opening	0
	Evening	0
Tuesday	Morning	4
	Opening	5
	Evening	-4
Wednesday	Morning	-4
	Opening	5
	Evening	9
Thursday	Morning	-4
	Opening	0
	Evening	3
Friday	Morning	0
	Opening	5
	Evening	0
		19

Here is the trade from Wednesday evening.

Now let’s review the Last Wave trade.  The problem with this technique is that, right now, the stocks that are trending one day then stop completely over the following days and their original trend does not continue.  And stocks that have big falls one day recover the next day while those with tremendous gains one day, fall the next as we can see for the majority of stocks during the last several weeks.  This makes it impossible for us to string together series of interesting trades as we did in past years.

We developed the technique in 2005 for our Spanish-speaking service although our results are only summed up on our web page since 2006 as we applied this technique with a variation in 2005 and we have not computed strictly Last Wave results from that year in our statistics.

As you can see, from 2006 until 2008, the technique gave us extraordinary results, buoyed by the volume and powerful tendency in the market at that time.  Last year, we executed the technique a bit and this year we are making gains, little by little, but many stocks can only be traded for one day and others have difficulty following a trend which is exactly the opposite of what happened in prior years when the majority of stocks in the same session would make the target.

The week before last, for example, the technique worked well with 5 consecutive positive operations but this last week did not go well with 3 negative trades.

Have a great weekend.