Weekly review 10/11/2010

Greetings everyone,

We will start our review with a market overview. 

Last week, we saw a slight downward trend in the majority of markets but, this week, we’ve seen a slight upward trend within this market which is quite SPECIAL, as we have commented over the last few weeks.  Here is current data to support our claim:

• The least number of Open Interest in the Ibex in the last few years.
• The lowest monthly volume for September since 1999.
• The largest gain in September for the SP since 1939
• Volumes way below the monthly averages of the last several months which were very poor in all markets.
• The Fed purchasing in the market this past Tuesday and Wednesday.
• The HFS in the US literally destroying values with movements more typical of OTC.

With these indicators in mind, take a look at the following chart of the last 20 sessions for the Dax to see how the market is now.

• Lacking tendency
• Strong intraday movements

FUTURES & STOCKS: Dax

Now we will review the Dax technique which we trade via our Trading Room at 2am EST (8am GMT +1).  For the year, we have made 23 positive trades versus 5 negative ones for a success rate of 82.15%.  The last 11 operations have been positive for a gain of 231 points (5,775 € per contract).

This past week, our technique indicated only one trade from which we gained 125 Euros per contract.  It was a shame we didn’t trade on Thursday and Friday as well, even though the gap were small, as our technique would have worked.

 LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again. 

We hope the market begins to move a bit more with expirations in October and US business financial reports.

FOREX

These were our operations this past week:

We had 3 positive operations versus 4 negative ones for a loss of -28 Pips. There isn’t much new about the market.  We continue with intra day movements which are quite flat.  Now we’ll summarize what was most interesting for the week. 

Weekly review 10/04/2010

Greetings everyone,

The following is our review of the past week.

FUTURES & STOCKS: Dax

Last Thursday, our trading for September came to a close.  For the month, we made only 10 Dax futures trades and all 10 were positive for a gain of 134.5 Dax puntos or 3,362.50 € per contract.  In August, a month we normally don’t operate a lot, we executed 17 operations.

Our results for Dax trading in this third quarter of 2010 were 22 positive operations versus 5 negative ones for a gain of 231 points which is the equivalent of 5,775 € per contract.

Here are all our operations:

MiniSP

For the MiniSP futures, the good news is that we closed the quarter with 79 positive operations versus 6 negative ones for a gain of 139.25 points or $6,962.50.  The bad news is that we haven’t traded since August 27th.  

As we have mentioned in other review, it’s not as if we don’t want to operate.  We don’t trade because the market conditions don’t allow us to do so. Take a look at the last several sessions.  There was only movement when macroeconomic reports were made and then the market would return to being flat and the Sp returned over and over again to the 1140 level.

They way the market is right now, we believe trading the Sp would be like throwing away our money.  Therefore, until the market changes, we won’t operate. 

LAST WAVE

For the Last Wave Technique, we also hope the market starts to move normally so we can begin to send trading signals once again. 

FOREX

This past week, we only executed the following two operations. 

 As we have commented, over the last several sessions, our pairs are at levels which make it difficult to operate our techniques.  The range is very narrow which doesn’t permit us to place our usual targets. Take a look at our trade of the Eur/Jpy from the 27th.  We hit the stop by only 5 pips, the price then remained static for almost 24 hours in a +25/-25 range and, 24 hours later, the pair would have hit our target of +50.

As we have stated before, we can’t force ourselves to continue taking risks while this sort of this continues to occur.  The advantage our techniques is that one doesn’t have to spend the day in front of their monitor.  But, while the markets lack strength and, especially, tendency during the opening of the European and US markets, we won’t be able to find good opportunities for this trading style.

As we mentioned last week, we are currently executing a technique which is similar to our FX techniques but applied to the DAX futures and with resounding success. This technique is simple to follow as you only have to enter the Trading Room 5 minutes before the European opening at 1:55am EST and, if there is a gap, we will trade either long or short and you will see our entry price, target and stop which normally don’t change throughout the rest of the session.  We are trying to replicate these trades for FOREX, the only problem being that, as you might expect, there are not gaps every day.  The up-side is that the success rate when there is a gap is very, very good (this month, we were 10 for 10 in Dax trade for a profit of +3,362.5 euros per contract). Therefore, if Forex traders are not comfortable trading futures, we will try to replicate this technique for FOREX as all markets are more or less correlated, depending on the cycle. Before we launch this new technique, we will advise you by email with the trade’s characteristics.

Have a great weekend!