Weekly Review 05/01/2010

Good day.

As we do every weekend, we are going to analyze the market and review the success of our techniques over the past week.

FOREX

It happened again for Forex. For some reason, of which we are unclear, during the last week of the month, we are losing a lot of pips this year.  As we just mentioned, we aren’t sure why this has been happening as it had not occurred prior to this year. 

Let’s take a look at the last 5 sessions of each month since January, 2009. 

Month	Pips earned/lost during last 5 sessions of month
January 2009	+17
February	+238
March	+424
April	-18
May	+50
June	+374
July	+152
August	+330
September	+202
October	+178
November	+380
December	+172
January 2010	-176
February 2010	-113
March 2010	-81
April 2010	-239

As you can see from this data, last year the last week of each month tended to be quite positive except for April, which was only slightly negative.

As we stated, those are the results of the last 5 sessions of each month but the problem actually starts several days before.  If we look at our results from the 23rd to the end of each month, we will find we lost 730 pips during those periods since January, 2010.  And those are a lot of pips.

Month	Last week
January	-187
February	-132
March	-120
April	-291
	-730 Pips

As you can imagine, these results worry us, especially because we have not as yet localized the problem.  This is something that had never occurred in the past and just started this year and the problem is basically abrupt price variations in pairs, movements up and down without any pattern.  This month, this problem was accompanied by the news this past week about Greece that, in some instances, ruined various operations. 

On the other hand, this past Friday, after the pairs had been stagnant for several days, the opposite happened.  The following is a chart of the activity on Thursday for the Eur/Jpy USA Morning and it doesn’t usually ever happen.  

And yesterday, the opposite occurred.

Many subscribers had suggested that if the problem is a lack of tendency for the USA Morning technique why not do the opposite?  Trade long when we would normally trade short and vice versa. As you can see, on Friday had we done that, the opposite would have happened. 

In any case, we will continue to study the situation and, during the last week of the month or, more accurately, from the 23rd on, we will watch the markets very closely to try to ensure that this doesn’t happen again as it is difficult for all of us to lose a month of work in one week or even only in 2 sessions. 

The following chart demonstrates the evolution of our Fx account since we opened it in January, 2009. As we have reminded you many times, with us you won’t become rich in two days but you also won’t lose money. You will simply make constant, gradual gains, without large DD in your account as the following chart demonstrates. Obviously, you must be prepared to have both positive and negative trades but, as you know, all our signals have a target as well as a stop so you always know the risk associate with each trade.

MINISP FUTURES

Now we will discuss the Sp, where volatility has finally returned in the latest market sessions.  Unfortunately, only volatility has returned as the lack of tendency continues and, as we can see in the following chart, during the last 17 sessions the range has been between 1178 and 1218 points with continuous movement in both directions. 

In the month of April, we made only 16 Sp trades when normally we make an average of 10-12 trades per week.

We continue to be unsatisfied with these results compared to what we are used to but, little by little, as the Sp begins to move to its normal rhythm our numbers will surely improve dramatically.  Thankfully, we are still profitable and this month we gained $325.

It was a shame we didn’t operate yesterday.  We didn’t because, as always, we don’t operate when macroeconomic data is announced at the opening but yesterday we would have traded short at 1203 and we would have easily reached our 5 point target.

In addition, although in general our statistics recommend not operating the Evening MiniSP technique on Fridays (two weeks ago we traded and we hit the 4 point stop) but yesterday we would have traded short at 1186.50 and we would have closed at 1183, for a 3.5 point profit.   

We hope you enjoy what remains of the weekend.