Review of the third week of March

As we do every weekend, we are going to analyze the market and review the success of our techniques over the past week:  the third week of March.

FOREX

This was our situation last weekend…

And now here is our current situation after the close of the session this past Friday.

This last week, we gained 244 pips, 182 with the European Morning Technique and 62 with the USA Morning Technique, during a week which was similar to what was a normal week during the majority of 2009 and before we began to publish signals in Daily Market Advice.

As we commented last weekend, the lack of volatility and direction for many pairs make it difficult for our Forex and Futures techniques to work. In addition, these market conditions don’t allow us to employ our Stock techniques as the vast majority of stock prices have been stagnant over the last several months. 

The situation with stocks or with SP Futures serves as an example for Forex.  With regard to our Stock techniques, in the past our Stock Evening Technique employed a 4% target and a 3% stop and 80% of our trades were profitable.  Now, we wouldn’t even be able to set a 1% target as the majority of stock prices aren’t moving.

What’s important is that we remain profitable; our accounts have grown since the beginning of the year even under the worst market conditions imaginable.  Imagine what will happen as market conditions improve, as they did last week.  We will have months of 500-1000 pips in gains.  To date, we have a gain in March of 343 pips.

MINISP FUTURES

This last week, we executed only 3 Evening MiniSP trades for a profit of 1.75 points.

Now let’s focus on intraday SP trading.

As you may remember, last week we conducted an interesting exercise calculating     how our techniques fared over the last three weeks both as designed as well as how we would have done trading exactly the opposite (the inverse) of what our technique prescribed.

Last 15 sessions:

Normal -17 points

Inverse 3.25 points

Second week of March:

Normal -4.25 points

Inverse 4.75 points

Applying this exercise to this past week, we see our techniques are beginning to work a bit better.  If we had executed all our trade, we would have earned a profit of +7.50 points.  Had we execute the inverse of our techniques, we would have lost 0.25 points.

DAY	TECHNIQUE	OUTCOME Normal	OUTCOME Inverse
Monday	Morning	4	-4
	Opening	0	0
	Evening	0	0
Tuesday	Morning	0	0
	Opening	-4	5
	Evening	2.75	-2.75
Wednesday	Morning	0.25	-0.25
	Opening	5	-4
	Evening	-1.25	1.25
Thursday	Morning	0	0
	Opening	-4	5
	Evening	-0.5	0.5
Friday	Morning	0	0
	Opening	5	-4
	Evening	0.25	3
		7.50	-0.25

As we have stated, for our techniques to begin to work perfectly again, we only need a little bit of market volatility.  If this is provided, we assure you we will make money without any problem and without having to fight for each and every trade to gain +0.25 points, as we did on Friday night.

Therefore, just like Forex, we are making gains little by little with 63 points of profit so far this quarter. 

Clearly our results are far from what we achieved in 2009 or 2008.

Never-the-less, we continue to work hard and what is most important for us is that the market returns to its normal patterns, not like it has been over the past several weeks, so that our technique again provides us with the profits we’ve become accustomed to.

Have a great weekend!